a·cu·men [ak-yuh-muhn] noun: keen insight; shrewdness

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Saturday 16 April 2011

04/16/11 14.0 Paajarvi's Solid Season

Oilers fans have been a bit spoiled this year when it comes to the rookie crop. With the likes of Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle, each of whom had stellar years, it's easy to believe that Magnus Paajarvi's rookie season was below average. This is due in part to the perception by some that he could be the most NHL ready of the Big 3 because of his having played with men in the Swedish Elite League. That has not turned out to be the case. On the whole no one seems to be suggesting that Paajarvi's season was a failure, but he's starting to be seen as a player who will be lauded for his strong two-way play and not his offensive output. To be sure, Paajarvi is a solid player at both ends of the ice, despite his mediocre minus-13 rating. But does that mean that the offense isn't there for him?

On a team that lacks players like Hall and Eberle, Paajarvi would be the star rookie. As such, he would certainly be relied upon more for offense and his ice time would have been increased. On average, Paajarvi played 3 minutes per game less than Taylor Hall and 2 minutes less than Eberle.

Paajarvi fired 180 shots on goal, which was the third-highest total on the team. Granted, Hall and Eberle would have had 229 and 209 shots in the same number of games played as Paajarvi, but Paajarvi was also playing fewer minutes per game, and sometimes with linemates that were not as skilled.

15 goals is not a bad total for a rookie season, especially when one considers that his shooting percentage was just 8.3%. If he works on his shot, gets better linemates, more ice time and a little puck luck, he shouldn't have much problem getting his percentage into Hall and Eberle's 11% range. That would easily make him a 20 goal scorer in the future. In fact, there's a chance that he could surpass that number.

Here is a list of nine years of rookie point totals close to Paajarvi's, starting in 2009-10:

2009-10:
 James van Riemsdyk  PHI  L  78  15  20  35  -1
Peter Regin  OTT  C  75  13  16  29  10
Artem Anisimov  NYR  C  82  12  16  28  -2
Tyler Bozak  TOR  C  37  8  19  27  -5
 Evander Kane  ATL  L  66  14  12  26  2 

2008-09:
 Andrew Ebbett  ANA  C  48  8  24  32  8
 Nikolai Kulemin  TOR  L  73  15  16  31  -8
Fabian Brunnstrom  DAL  L  55  17  12  29  -8
 John Mitchell  TOR  C  76  12  17  29  -16 
 Mikkel Boedker  PHX  L  78  11  17  28  -6
 Claude Giroux  PHI  R  42  9  18  27 

2007-08:
 Martin Hanzal  PHX  C  72  8  27  35  -7
 Nigel Dawes  NYR  L  61  14  15  29  11 
 David Perron  STL  L  62  13  14  27  16
 Sergei Kostitsyn  MTL  L  52  9  18  27  9 
Milan Lucic  BOS  L  77  8  19  27  -2 

2006-07:
 Alexander Radulov  NSH  R  64  18  19  37  19 
Ryane Clowe  SJS  L  58  16  18  34 
Guillaume Latendresse  MTL  L  80  16  13  29  -20 
 Phil Kessel  BOS  R  70  11  18  29  -12
Joe Pavelski  SJS  C  46  14  14  28  4 
 Drew Stafford  BUF  R  41  13  14  27  5 
 Jiri Hudler  DET  C  76  15  10  25  16 
 David Backes  STL  R  49  10  13  23  6

2005-06:
Ryan Getzlaf  ANA  C  57  14  25  39  6 
 Milan Michalek  SJS  L  81  17  18  35  1
Rene Bourque  CHI  L  77  16  18  34  3
Mike Richards  PHI  C  79  11  23  34  6 
 Michel Ouellet  PIT  R  50  16  16  32  -13 
Zach Parise  NJD  L  81  14  18  32  -1

2003-04:
 Patrice Bergeron  BOS  C  71  16  23  39  5
Joffrey Lupul  ANA  R  75  13  21  34  -6
Nikolay Zherdev  CBJ  R  57  13  21  34  -11 
 Eric Staal  CAR  C  81  11  20  31  -6
Matthew Lombardi  CGY  C  79  16  13  29  4 

2002-03:
Rick Nash  CBJ  R  74  17  22  39  -27
Ales Kotalik  BUF  R  68  21  14  35  -2 
 Niko Kapanen  DAL  C  82  5  29  34  25 
 Alex Frolov  LAK  L  79  14  17  31  12
Stanislav Chistov  ANA  L  79  12  18  30  4
 Ales Hemsky  EDM  R  59  6  24  30  5 

2001-02:
 Pavel Datsyuk  DET  C  70  11  24  35  4 
Martin Erat  NSH  R  80  9  24  33  -11

Radim Vrbata  COL  R  52  18  12  30  7

2000-01:
Marian Gaborik  MIN  R  71  18  18  36  -6
Ruslan Fedotenko  PHI  L  74  16  20  36  8 
 Steve Reinprecht  LAK, COL  C  80  15  21  36  10 
Daniel Sedin  VAN  L  75  20  14  34  -3
Karel Rachunek  OTT  D  71  3  30  33  17 
 David Vyborny  CBJ  R  79  13  19  32  -9 

The bolded players played a similar number of games to Paajarvi as rookies and also ended with similar point totals before becoming very good NHLers. Some of these players are now elite offensive talents, and yet they had rookie seasons close to that of Magnus Paajarvi. No one is suggesting that Paajarvi is going to turn into Eric Staal or Zach Parise, but the point of these numbers is to show that seasons like Paajarvi's do not mean that that player will not end up being an offensive threat. On the other hand, there are just as many, if not more players who aren't bolded, meaning that these players either ended up being only decent or not playing in the NHL at all, or that they weren't close to Paajarvi's totals.

Magnus Paajarvi clearly has the tools to be effective in the NHL. The fact that he understands a two-way game is a major point of strength for him and will help to keep him in the league for a long time. However, making the transition from Europe is not as easy as some may think, especially for a young man who is only 19 years old. The fact that his offensive output is not what some expected can be at least partially chalked up to the fact that he is making a major jump. Not only do Hall and Eberle have the advantage when it comes to knowing the North American style of play and ice surface size, but they also have a leg up in regards to the culture, language, and proximity to their friends and families. It's certainly no cooincidence that Paajarvi's play began to improve with the addition of fellow Swede Linus Omark, and the effect that the mind can have on an athlete is well known. As he gets accustomed to North America, he should be more able to focus on hockey.

Paajarvi has shown a remarkable level of maturity in being able to come to Canada on his own, and considering all the things working against him, his rookie season should be celebrated for its quality. If he can continue to work hard and improve his game, there's no reason that he cannot be a dangerous offensive threat as well as a complete player.

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